2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION

Here we go again. The ultimate exercise in futility. So far I am 3/5 (60%). Technically I got the last one right, but let's be honest, that was another huge polling miss for most the pollsters. So it's really hard to know what's going on! Is it really a coin flip like the polls are saying? Are they underestimating the Trump vote again? Or are they trying to avoid a third straight whiff on that and have overcorrected? Basically, you're going to believe whatever fits your determined world view.

Generally, I do feel like it is a coin flip. The country has not fundamentally changed since 2016 and 2020. We are still along our tribal lines. Those both were super close and we're probably going to see something similar again this year.

I think the "Blue Wall" will go in a similar fashion to 2020 (and for Trump in 2016), meaning these states will be decided by like 1.5% or less. Might take a day or two to figure out who won. Let's hope not though.

Popular Vote
Harris/Walz           50.4%
Trump/Vance        48.1%
Others                   1.5%

Electoral College
Harris/Walz           276
Trump/Vance        262

If you want to look at the older ones, here is 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Wow, this blog is over 20 years old. That's humbling.

FALL 2024 UPDATE

Shamrock 2024 8k

Hello there. It's been a while. I don't think I'll end up writing those delayed race recaps, haha! Basically, there is no point because I'm not really running competitively anymore. When I do a race, I basically just run it like a weeknight run group race. I did try pretty hard for that Silver Falls race though, and I even bought some photos, so maybe I will post about that. I was actually pretty pleased with my effort there. I'll have to at least add my times to my master race archive so they don't get lost to the winds of time.

I think I might have long COVID. My cardio is just really screwed up in a way I've never experienced before. Anything longer than 4-5 miles is basically impossible. Every time I go to ramp up and try to extend my mileage my heart rate spikes and it feels like I am going to die. So that's really limited my ability to do very much. Sometimes even a four mile run is way harder than it should be. My psoriatic arthritis is not the limiting factor anymore.

So that sucks. I've completed nine marathons and I feel like I need at least one more. I really would like to do Chicago. But I need my cardio situation to be resolved before I can even think about doing another training cycle. Right now it's pretty frustrating because even slow runs are so hard and I'm basically always the slowest person at the running group. Very discouraging.

HOLY CRAP IT'S FALL, HERE'S AN UPDATE

Silver Falls with the 'rents a few years ago.

I still need to write that Shamrock Recap. Gah. I have a few notes already saved, I just need to buck up and do it. It'll probably be a lot shorter and less elaborate than most my race recaps, but that's okay. I just feel the need to recap any race I really try at.

Unfortunately (or fortunately??), my body was not in a place to do a marathon this year. When I tried to ramp up to ten miles in late May to get ready for the "start" of training in June, I had a huge flair of my psoriatic arthritis. The "long runs" the previous two weeks, I think they were 8 and 9 miles, were absolute death marches with my heart rate in the high 170s. This after my ramp up from 5 to 6 to 7 went swimmingly. So I don't know what the fuck was up.

Anyways, by the time I could realistically try to run distance again, it was late June and the marathon was out the window. Around this time, the Silver Falls Half Marathon opened for registration, and over the years I guess it has gotten less popular. Back in the day you had to be ready to register at 7am to even have a chance. I registered at like 2pm the day it opened without issue. I think it was open for weeks before filling. Long story short, I kind of blacked out and somehow signed up for a trail half marathon in early November. Oops.

The trail half really appealed to me because worst case I could just walk most of it like it was a hike. Generally, a trail half is more forgiving goal. There are uphills you kind of have to walk, your time is going to suck because its a trail so you don't have weird mental hangups about getting "under 2:15" or something, and generally a trail sounds nicer to my body than a road. Basically, I can just go out there, try my best, finish in like three hours, and call it a day. Sounds good.

In preparation, I am increasing my "long run" again. I just did 8 miles last weekend and it actually felt pretty good. My heart rate was in the high 150s and my body was adjusting nicely to the slow increase in mileage. I'll try for 9 this weekend and then 10 the weekend after. I then have two more weekends before the race. We'll see. Basically, I'm now confident I can run a majority of the 13 miles. That wasn't the case a month ago when my runs were capping out at 4 miles.

So that's the update. Once that half is out of the way, I'm sure I'll go into my normal hibernation mode. Every winter I pretend I'm going to work on speed and I never do. So I won't even pretend this year. We've just had the first wave of "winter-like" weather and I could feel it in my body instantly. Hopefully I can feel good enough to try the 15k again next spring in the Shamrock Run.

2022-23 WINTER RECAP

What a fun, beautiful jaunt through the forest! What could go wrong?

Trying not to fall too far behind here on the blog. I will have a seperate post recapping the Shamrock 15k this year, but I've also been meaning to do a general update since the Portland Marathon. So that's what this post will be about.

The recovery from the Portland Marathon went really well! I attribute this to my decent amount of training and slower time not pounding the crap out of my body. I was definitely sore for a few days, but by Thursday or so I felt almost back to normal. I did take a full two weeks off before running again just to make sure I was rested enough. I could still feel the race a teeny bit that first run or two, but I was back to my normal self pretty quick. Unlike some years, there wasn't really a lingering hangover in my legs from the race. So that was encouraging.

In November I did the Silver Falls 7-Miler with Katie. She signed us up when it opened (hard to get into and you have to be right there ready at like 7am, so there's no hope I could ever register myself). I was excited to do it because I had never done a trail run. I knew we'd just run it for fun and not actually race it, so it would be a nice way to test out a trail run. I didn't have trail shoes or anything, but that loop at Silver Falls is improved enough where you didn't really need them. I felt okay in just normal running shoes and a lot of the "normies" running the race were in the same boat.

And it was pretty fun and great until Katie fell about four miles in and completely gashed her knee open. She was in a decent amount of pain but still able to run, so we walked/ran the rest of the way. Unfortunately for her, she really didn't have much of an option given the trail nature of the race. After we finished she stopped by the medical tent to get a bandage and OH MY GOD she lifted her running tights past the wound and it was like a horror movie. Anyways, I spent the rest of that morning and most of the afternoon in the Salem ER while she got that attended to with internal and external stitches. Poor Katie! I would definitely do that run again but I'm not sure she would!

Other than that, it was another winter just trying to stay above water with my fitness. The cold weather makes my joints hurt and that makes running really unappealing. It doesn't really make me feel better or worse (well, it would make me feel worse if I overdid it) but the motivation is just so hard to come by. I was able to mostly run twice a week for four miles, whether that be inside on the treadmill or with Sunstone on the weekdays. I just really, really dislike dark & cold running.

I did feel better than last winter though which is attributable to Cosentyx versus Simponi I believe. It still was FAR from perfect, but I did not experience a miserable amount of inflammation very often. Just kind of a constant dull pain with mini flares, but that is an improvement! I felt better to the point I was able to sign up and do the Shamrock 15k, which is a huge improvement over last year barely being able to stomach the thought of the 8k. I'm in about 8-mile long run shape right now, so if I can maintain and build on that, I'll me much farther ahead this year if I end up doing a marathon in the fall.

So yeah, that's the update. Still hate the winter, it still makes my body feel horrible, but it wasn't as bad as the last few years and I am in better shape at this point in the year than any year since... 2019. So that's encouraging. Now, I'm still slow as SHIT, that hasn't improved at all, but frankly that's the least of my concern. The goal is just to be out there trotting around, so I'll continue to make peace with whatever pace that is. Oh, and that AI picture is "arthritic man running the New York Marathon," I saw it and was like "yup, that looks about right!" Credit Bing photo generator.

2022 PORTLAND MARATHON RACE RECAP

At the start line before the race, when there was still light in my eyes and life in my body.

As the week approached I wasn't dreading the race very much this year. I had "home bed advantage," the weather looked dry, I had no pressure on my performance, and I felt confident I could do the distance without issue. So it was pretty nice that week leading up to the race, I was tapering, I didn't have to fly anywhere... it was very low key. Usually during race week I am nervous, this time, not so much. It was just kind of something I had to do on Sunday.

Okay, as I went to the expo on Saturday and picked up my bib, it became a little more real. Maybe a twinge of anxiety in the chest. This was definitely the least I planned ahead of time though, as I started thinking about what to eat for breakfast and my morning plan only hours before going to bed. I ran to the store to get bagels and cream cheese, my normal marathon morning breakfast, then set the alarm for 5:45am. The race started at 7:10am, so I was shooting to get there about 6:45. No reason in my mind to be there any earlier. Especially with such mild weather and no need to check any clothes for post-race.

THE MORNING OF

So let's talk about the weather. My main hope with every marathon is that it is dry. And thankfully, as the ten day forecast filled in, it looked certain to be dry. The issue would be the heat, as the high for that day started creeping from 78 up and up to the point on race day it was predicted to be 86 degrees. Now, if anybody knows me, they know I don't mind the heat all too much and that I'd rather run in 90 degrees than 45. So while I didn't mind that it would be a bit warmer, I wasn't so naive to think that it wouldn't slow me down a tad. You can't run as fast in 75 as you can in 55. Would I even be running fast enough for it to be an issue though?

My morning wake up plan worked perfectly, I was fed and downtown looking to park about 6:40am. Issue though... the parking garage I was planning on using was coned off. It looks like they put a few block buffer around the race from traffic, which meant I couldn't get into that lot. It was even listed on the Portland Marathon website as a parking option for that morning! Luckily, I had noticed another lot a few blocks before, so I just circled back and went in there instead. Plenty of other runners had the same idea, so I walked with a small pack toward the start line.

The Portland Marathon is a really easy race to attend because it's still small enough the start line isn't a giant fiasco. They have finish time arches and you self seed. Unlike Shamrock, they don't have metal fencing surrounding the road, so it was very easy to just wander to the right spot along the sidewalk and then pop onto the road. I lined up just behind the 4:40 finish time arch, which seemed to be a popular time. The density of the crowd definitely seemed highest between those 4:00 and 5:00 finish times.

In the chute with my fellow 4:40 homies.

MILES 1-7: THE NORTHERN LOOP (10:42, 10:57, 10:47, 10:05, 10:05, 10:29, 10:27)

Another thing I like about the Portland Marathon is they keep the half and the full completely separate. They line up in a different chute and, although we technically cross the start line together, they immediately turn and go their own way. This keeps the crowds down for the marathoners so there was no congestion of any sort that slowed me down at the beginning.

The goal this year was to try and replicate last year in New York. I wasn't confident I could completely match it again - last year felt so effortless and easy it was really baffling. But the thought was just to lock into what felt like my long run pace and try to run that out. And it felt very similar at the beginning, I was running what felt like my normal long run pace, it felt relatively easy, and it was just a touch quicker than training due to the race day "magic." So everything was lining up as it should.

One issue I was having though was my heart rate. It instantly went into the mid to high 160s, instead of the high 150s/low 160s of last year. So my average heart rate over these miles was 166 instead of the 159 of last year. It couldn't have been the weather yet; when the race started it was a perfectly reasonable 58 or so. Maybe my watch was just off, these things aren't super accurate to begin with. Basically, since I felt okay, I just went with it. I wasn't going to throttle myself to a 12:00/mile because an unreliable piece of technology was spitting a number at me.

Anyways, for this section, I felt pretty good! It definitely dragged by longer than the first time I ran it. Every mile felt like a mile. This wasn't the case last year in New York and usually isn't a sign of a good race. However, maybe it was just my familiarity with Portland. I mean, how many times can you run on Naito and around the Rose Quarter? As long as I was hitting my pace and felt good, then everything should align as needed. Those two faster miles were a result of a gradual downhill after climbing Broadway in mile three. I don't know why my third mile isn't slower, it was noticeably slower than the first two in 2019, so I may have accidentally ran that too fast.

MILES 8-13: HANGING ON INTO SELLWOOD (10:31, 10:56, 10:24, 10:40, 10:50, 10:58)

I kept chugging along, putting one foot in front of the other. The crowds in Portland were fine but nothing to match the energy of New York, which may have been one of the reasons the race felt like it was dragging on already. At some point during mile 8 or 9 you pass the start line again and have to run in the southbound lane while watching half marathoners finish in the northbound lane right next to you. It's a bit of a kick in the nuts seeing them done and knowing you are only "half" done. And I put half in quotes because every marathoner knows the first twenty miles is truly the first half.

Aside from that mental downer, I still felt okay. Not practically floating on air like the year before, but fine. My heart rate was climbing though and the high 160s quickly became the low 170s. And I'm sorry, but the low 170s is just an insane heart rate to have during a marathon. Again, this was if my watch was accurate. I still felt fine, but I had a feeling it was more accurate than I would have liked. I had a slower 10:56 mile during the uphill to Macadam Avenue, but my times rebounded back to what I wanted quickly after. I hadn't hit true adversity yet.

Mile thirteen was really where the shit hit the fan. Ironically enough, this was the spot I ate the ill-fated KitKat back in 2019 and derailed my race too. Damn you Sellwood Park, you are a bad omen. Anyways, the trip over the Sellwood Bridge seemed to sap any last "pep" that was in my step. As I approached the thirteenth mile marker my heart rate escalated into the high 170s. All of a sudden that "easy long run pace" was starting to feel like a tempo pace. My watch WAS right because I could feel my heart pounding through my chest. What was going on?

MILES 14-20: INITIATE TACTICAL ADJUSTMENT (10:39, 10:50, 11:23, 11:40, 11:35, 11:42. 11:26)

Something that has always been true in marathons for me is how I'm feeling at the halfway point. And it's pretty obvious, if you reach the halfway point already spent wanting to be done... you are in for a rough time. If you reach it feeling fresh thinking "halfway already?" you are probably in for a good race. I reached the halfway point this year feeling like a husk of a human completely regretting all his life choices. It was a little bit frustrating to train all summer and then have a performance like I was having. Why was my heart rate 178?! It NEVER got that high during summer long run training, even when it was hot. I'm only 14 miles in! What the fuck!

I tried to ignore it for a bit but reality was catching up to me. The hill up Bybee Boulevard over Macadam Avenue was the last straw in trying to pretend I could somehow gut this one out at my long run pace. I was DONE. My legs felt like they had already run a marathon, my heart rate was spiking into the low 180s... if I tried to keep this up I'd end up in the Good Samaritan emergency room. Might have been kind of a nice life loop, begin and end my life at Good Sam in the heart of Portland.

Joking aside, I knew I had to make an adjustment. Trying to keep my goal pace wasn't going to happen, so two options were available. Either I could run/walk it in and still run at my desired speed or I could dial back the pace and try to "run" it in. For me, slowing my pace by a minute was preferable. If I couldn't get the time I was hoping for, maybe I could at least have the accomplishment of running the damn thing in. So a decision was made. I was going to throttle my speed to something that felt like I could survive and try to not to walk. It's a stupid point of pride, I had my best times when I walked a little, but whatever. When you are this far off your glory days you take what you can get.

Reed College sucked. It was pretty but I felt like death and there were a lot of hills. Good crowds though. Thanks for coming out to cheer guys. Sorry I liked like death.

MILES 21-26.2: SLOWLY SHUFFLING TO THE FINISH (11:46, 11:21, 11:54, 11:41, 11:52, 11:27)

Fortunately, the change in pace did help me a bit. I went from feeling like I was going to die to feeling like maybe, just maybe, I could finish this thing. It was going to suck, but I could envision myself stumbling through the finish line, which was a big improvement in outlook from the halfway point. After the adjustment my heart rate did dip down to the low 170s for a few miles, which was a bit reassuring in terms of not having my heart explode. I've heard that's important to not have happen. It did creep back up though and by the last few miles it was pretty much pegged at 179. Oh well, it wasn't zero.

I was really worried about "the hill" that comes shortly after the Reed College bit. If you've down the Portland Marathon, you know which hill I'm talking about. Around mile 22.5 there is a killer uphill in the neighborhoods that dumps you onto McLoughlin Boulevard. Its only two or three blocks long but it's painfully uphill. The kind of uphill that sucks even if you are super fresh and prepared to run hills. If anything was going to break my "running" streak it was this hill. And I have to say, just about everyone around me walked it. It's the sane thing to do if you are running a five hour marathon. I was the only person I saw running it. I wasn't moving much faster than anyone else (about a 14:00/mile pace) but I was shuffling up it dammit. It felt like my calves were going to explode. I wasn't sure I was going to be able to make it. I let out noises. I limped. But I climbed that fucking hill without walking a step.

Running that hill was probably a stupid point of pride that could have derailed my entire race, but you know what? I got away with it. After that point I was able to resume a death march like shuffle. I was pretty confident I could finish. It was just taking FOREVER. I cannot emphasize enough how much longer this race took than any other race I had ever run. Yes, it was my slowest time, but not by much. The year before in New York felt just like all the other marathons I had run in the 3:30-3:50 range. This year, which was less than ten minutes slower, felt like eight hours. It was torture. I had no idea why I was there and did this to myself. But whatever, I was in it, might as well finish.

The final hills and bridges were pretty painful. My legs were gone at this point and it felt like at any moment my muscles would tear or explode. I was happy that I would finish under five hours. Once any 4:40ish hope was out the window, that was the next goal. Just try to keep it in the fours. So I kept shuffling. Crossing the finish line didn't even feel triumphant though. I just dead, inside and out. I did my best to take a good picture though and I have to admit, I think I fooled the cameras.

THE AFTERMATH

Honestly, I didn't feel too bad in the chute. Definitely not as good as New York, but I wasn't in any major pain or anything. I was just drained beyond belief. I grabbed some food and actually ate a decent amount, which is unusual for me after a race. Although to be fair, I did almost instantly demand a cheeseburger last year after the race, so I'm thinking these hobby jogger marathon times might actually mean I'm hungry after races now.

Anyways, I did know quite a few people that ran the race, but they all ran it in 3:30 or so, which meant they were long gone from the "after party" which I've never quite understood. The last thing I want to do after running twenty six miles is stand up and have loud music pumped into my ears. Who are these people? Anyways, my parents were also out of town so long story short, I took my sad, lonely ass home (after wolfing down my free ice cream, donut, and beer). My afternoon was spent in a hot bath and then taking a nap. All told, my muscles weird too bad, just very, very tried and drained.

Overall, I am really proud of my race. Nothing went right. I have no idea why my heart rate was spiking like that. All summer that pace was in the high 150s or low 160s. Why, on race day, is it suddenly in the 170s? It felt a bit unfair, but oh well, what can you do? Frankly, the fact I struggled that hard and still finished within spitting distance of last year is pretty awesome. That was a five hour GRIND and I bucked up and did it. Yay me.

OFFICIAL CHIP TIME: 4:51:47, 11:08/mi. 996/1745 male, 178/291 M35-39.

2022 PORTLAND MARATHON RACE PREVIEW

From 2019, the last time I did the Portland Marathon. I was much faster back then!

Well, I was able to hit that twenty mile run without too much issue after the last post. It was long and hard (heh) but I was able to get it done. The weather that day was overcast and smoky, some people at Sunstone actually cut the run short because of the smoke. I did NOT have that option. I'm sure it was the equivalent of smoking a few packs, but it was doable. The weather definitely helped as well, after so many runs in the heat and sun, overcast in the low 70s was downright dreamy.

That run felt good enough that I didn't feel the need to do an "emergency" third 20 mile run the next weekend. I decided to do my usual wind down to 16 and then 10 the last weekend before the race. The sixteen was ran at a quicker pace (10:20) due to an old friend showing up, so it was a hell of a workout. I was definitely sore for a couple days after that. Anyways, despite the August lull discussed in the last post, I do feel about ready as I can be for the race on Sunday.

So what are my plans/goals for Sunday? Not much. Basically I want to finish. I do NOT have any time goals. With my fitness being where it is, there is no sense in pushing my pace at all. If I tried to push the pace and get 4:38... who cares. I could run it comfortably and finish in 4:53. To everyone but myself 4:38 and 4:53 are the same thing. Not very fast. Nobody gives a shit. So basically my goal is to run it comfortably and don't get wrapped into a race day "challenging" of myself.

I feel I'm about in the same shape as last year, maybe slightly less in shape if anything. I'm a year older and I had that huge hole in my August training. So I'm definitely not in better shape. However, I'm in the ballpark of last year, which I think means if I just go out and do my normal long run pace, I should be able to finish without too much issue. Hopefully, knock on wood.

Last year I ran a 4:43 and I felt suspiciously amazing. I've never felt like that during a marathon before. Even if I felt that way again, Portland is a harder course and naturally I would probably be about five minutes slower due to all the hills. So my time, best case, is going to clock in around 4:50. Talk about getting your money's worth! I'm not going to be finishing this thing until after noon (7:10am gun time). Fuck.

There you have it. My biggest goal is to run it at a comfortable pace and hopefully not walk. If I can run the whole thing, that would be great. If I have to take little walk breaks towards the end, then whatever, I still did a marathon. Basically I'll just go out for a little jog and by the time it hurts, hopefully I have less than an hour left. Then I'll just mindfuck my way to the finish line. Runners know what I mean.

Anyways, if you want to stalk me on Sunday, here is the link: LIVE RUNNER TRACKING