2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION

Well, it's time for this exercise in futility again. Every four years try my hand at predicting what will happen during the election, failing miserably half the time (2/4, 50%). I try to get my prediction up a few days early and have a couple differences from the "conventional wisdom" (which these days, is mostly 538).

If you want to look at the older ones, here is 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. Below is this year's prediction. My next post will be back to running and how Humira is going as I just had my third injection on Thursday.

There it is. As of right now, the differences from the 538 model are Iowa going for Biden and Georgia going for Trump. Also, 538 is saying an 8 point margin nationwide for Biden, I'll go with 9. Tipping point state will be closer though, so it's clenchin' time!

Electoral Vote

Biden/Harris         341

Trump/Pence        197

Popular Vote

Biden/Harris         54%

Trump/Pence        45%