2016 MIAMI HALF MARATHON PREVIEW

Last year's finish in 1:41.

Hard to believe it is that time again! I don't know how this became a tradition, but a trip to sunny Florida every year in late January isn't the worst thing that can happen. As long as my buddy keeps running it, I'll likely keep signing up and going. Since all I have to pay for is the plane ticket it ends up being a pretty cheap trip too, which is nice. Not looking forward to the 8-10 hour plane journey each way, but I'll just load up some movies on my tablet, bring a book, and deal with it.

I'm in a unique position this year to enjoy the race. There is NO WAY I'm going to get even close to a course PR (1:41) so the real question is... how hard to I want to kill myself? I recently ran a 1:44 at the Hot Buttered Run but it was 32 degrees and I was in better shape at the time. I've only ran seven times since taking an entire month off, so I have to keep my expectations realistic. Thus... do I want to kill myself and get a "current fitness best" of 1:49? Or do I back off a little, try to enjoy the sights and spectacle a little more, and finish in 1:58?

I think the plan will be to run entirely on feel. Ignore the watch and just see what happens. Run a pace that's hard but manageable. I can't be focused on hitting 8:05s or 8:20s or whatever, but focused on running a hard pace that's sustainable for 13.1 miles. I don't know what that pace is and I won't know until I try to start running it on race day. It might be 8:15, it might be 8:40. Whatever it is, I'll run it and see how far it takes me. Hopefully I can make it to the finish. However, if that doesn't happen, again, this race is unique in that I'm not really focused on a certain time or goal. I think as long as I finish under two hours I can live with myself.

Sorry if that's a lot of rambling. Ideally I wouldn't be running a half marathon at this point. Part of me wants to just 9:45/mile it and soak in the atmosphere. I'm going to reserve the right to do that if I want to, but I still do have a competitive side and that side would die a little if I just phoned it in. I'm not sure I would actually enjoy the race more with that "Old Thomas" competitive side of me gnawing at the back of my brain the entire time.

Okay, so I think I've talked myself through it and came up with a plan. I'm going to go out and run what I think a current, sustainable half marathon pace is. I expect that to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8:15-8:30/mile but I don't really know. I expect, somewhere around the Venetian Islands at mile ten, my legs will start to give out. The real question at that point is if I can hold it together and still sub 9:00/mile it in, or if I'm in for a shitshow.

The course is the same as the previous years, so no surprises there. Amazingly, it looks like we are due for some unseasonably cold weather on race day. Last year it was 55 at the race start and I never thought the weather would be like that again for at least another decade (so did the locals, the average temperature at race start is normally the high 60s). However, it looks like almost a repeat of last year, with weather likely in the mid 50s at race start and a high of only 66 on Sunday. Now, we are still a few days out, but if that holds it will certainly help my chances of not having an total disaster of a race.

GOALS:

"A" Goal: 1:49:59 or faster. The stars align and I'm able to run the race strong without hardly any letdown in the last few miles. This would be an average pace of 8:20/mile.

"B" Goal: 1:59:59 or faster. I think in a best case scenario, with my legs responding and the weather holding, then I could achieve my "A" goal. Aside from that however, whatever I run is going to be a PW. And given my recent time off, I can live with anything under 2:00. Does a 1:53 over a 1:58 really matter? Nope. I'm not sure my legs have 13.1 miles of speed in them. This is 9:05/mile, so it allows me to break down some at the end, which very well might happen.

"C" Goal: Finish. You are healthy, able bodied, and running a half marathon in a beautiful city. You are doing something most of the population cannot do and even with a "bad" time personally, it will likely still be better than 2/3rds of the field. Sometimes it is important to keep perspective. My 4:21 in Detroit was a great experience, so if this race doesn't work out, just have a similar mentality.