2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION

Here we go again. The ultimate exercise in futility. So far I am 3/5 (60%). Technically I got the last one right, but let's be honest, that was another huge polling miss for most the pollsters. So it's really hard to know what's going on! Is it really a coin flip like the polls are saying? Are they underestimating the Trump vote again? Or are they trying to avoid a third straight whiff on that and have overcorrected? Basically, you're going to believe whatever fits your determined world view.

Generally, I do feel like it is a coin flip. The country has not fundamentally changed since 2016 and 2020. We are still along our tribal lines. Those both were super close and we're probably going to see something similar again this year.

I think the "Blue Wall" will go in a similar fashion to 2020 (and for Trump in 2016), meaning these states will be decided by like 1.5% or less. Might take a day or two to figure out who won. Let's hope not though.

Popular Vote
Harris/Walz           50.4%
Trump/Vance        48.1%
Others                   1.5%

Electoral College
Harris/Walz           276
Trump/Vance        262

If you want to look at the older ones, here is 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Wow, this blog is over 20 years old. That's humbling.

FALL 2024 UPDATE

Shamrock 2024 8k

Hello there. It's been a while. I don't think I'll end up writing those delayed race recaps, haha! Basically, there is no point because I'm not really running competitively anymore. When I do a race, I basically just run it like a weeknight run group race. I did try pretty hard for that Silver Falls race though, and I even bought some photos, so maybe I will post about that. I was actually pretty pleased with my effort there. I'll have to at least add my times to my master race archive so they don't get lost to the winds of time.

I think I might have long COVID. My cardio is just really screwed up in a way I've never experienced before. Anything longer than 4-5 miles is basically impossible. Every time I go to ramp up and try to extend my mileage my heart rate spikes and it feels like I am going to die. So that's really limited my ability to do very much. Sometimes even a four mile run is way harder than it should be. My psoriatic arthritis is not the limiting factor anymore.

So that sucks. I've completed nine marathons and I feel like I need at least one more. I really would like to do Chicago. But I need my cardio situation to be resolved before I can even think about doing another training cycle. Right now it's pretty frustrating because even slow runs are so hard and I'm basically always the slowest person at the running group. Very discouraging.