Here we go again. The ultimate exercise in futility. So far I am 3/5 (60%). Technically I got the last one right, but let's be honest, that was another huge polling miss for most the pollsters. So it's really hard to know what's going on! Is it really a coin flip like the polls are saying? Are they underestimating the Trump vote again? Or are they trying to avoid a third straight whiff on that and have overcorrected? Basically, you're going to believe whatever fits your determined world view.
Generally, I do feel like it is a coin flip. The country has not fundamentally changed since 2016 and 2020. We are still along our tribal lines. Those both were super close and we're probably going to see something similar again this year.
I think the "Blue Wall" will go in a similar fashion to 2020 (and for Trump in 2016), meaning these states will be decided by like 1.5% or less. Might take a day or two to figure out who won. Let's hope not though.
Harris/Walz 50.4%
Trump/Vance 48.1%
Others 1.5%